Analysis of Factors Affecting the Performance of the Iraq Stock Exchange: A Study for the Period (2004-2023) with a Focus on Government Policies, Oil Prices, and Security and Political Stability: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Performance of the Iraq Stock Exchange

Pana Foad Abdulla Ahmed  Ahmed; Salar Hamid Awakhti Ali

doi:10.63841/iue22513

Authors

Pana Foad Abdulla Ahmed Ahmed College of Commerce, University of Sulaimani, 46001, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, IRAQ Author https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2636-6588
Salar Hamid Awakhti Ali College of Commerce, University of Sulaimani, 46001, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, IRAQ Author https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1017-8429

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63841/iue22513

Keywords:

Stock Market, Performance Analysis, Market Indicators, Market Capitalization, Trading Volume, Economic Policies, Fiscal Policies, Investment.

Abstract

This study investigates the factors influencing the performance of the Iraq Stock Exchange from 2004 to 2023, focusing on government policies, oil prices, security and political stability, global events, and technological development. The study follows a sequence of tests to understand these factors' impact on market performance.

The first step involves the Phillips-Perron test, which indicates that most variables become stationary after the first difference, with security and political stability stationary at the level, while technological development requires further analysis. Next, the cointegration test confirms a long-term relationship between government policies, oil prices, security and political stability, and global events with the ISX, while technological development does not exhibit cointegration. Regression analysis reveals that government financial policies and oil prices negatively impact market performance, highlighting Iraq’s reliance on oil exports. Security and political stability further reduce investor confidence, while global events contribute to market uncertainty. Technological development does not significantly affect market performance.

The independent variables explain 87% of the variation in market performance, confirming the model's robustness. The findings suggest that while government policies, oil prices, and political instability negatively affect the market, technological development holds potential for improvement. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers and investors aiming to enhance the dynamics of the ISX.

Author Biographies

Pana Foad Abdulla Ahmed Ahmed, College of Commerce, University of Sulaimani, 46001, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, IRAQ

Pana Fuad Abdullah Ahmed is an Assistant Lecturer in the Department of International Trade, College of Commerce, University of Sulaimani. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics and a Master's degree with Good academic standing. His research interests focus broadly on the field of economics, and he has published two research papers to date.
Salar Hamid Awakhti Ali, College of Commerce, University of Sulaimani, 46001, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, IRAQ

Salar Hamid Awakhti Ali is a Lecturer in the Department of Tourism, College of Commerce, University of Sulaimani. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics and a Master's degree with Good academic standing. His research interests include general topics in economics, and he has published eight research papers between 2022 and 2025.

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