Basel Committee Crypto Capital Rules, U.S. Dollar Index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average Effects on Bitcoin Volatility
Basel Committee Crypto Capital Rules, U.S. Dollar Index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average Effects on Bitcoin Volatility
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63841/iue3261167Keywords:
Bitcoin volatility, Basel Crypto Rules, U.S. Dollar Index, Dow Jones Average, banking regulation.Abstract
This study examines the impact of Basel Committee Crypto-Asset Capital Regulations (BCCR), the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Bitcoin price volatility using time-series data from global financial markets. The analysis employs regression-based and correlation techniques to investigate how banking capital requirements and macro-financial indicators influence cryptocurrency price dynamics. The findings indicate that Basel crypto capital regulations impose binding constraints on institutional liquidity, thereby amplifying Bitcoin volatility, particularly during periods of market stress. Moreover, a strengthening U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY, exerts downward pressure on Bitcoin prices by encouraging capital reallocation toward dollar-denominated reserves, while movements in the DJIA are associated with heightened volatility driven by shifts in equity market risk. Moderation analysis further reveals that regulatory capital constraints intensify the effect of the DXY on Bitcoin volatility during market downturns. Overall, the results demonstrate the growing integration of Bitcoin into traditional macro-financial channels, challenging the notion of cryptocurrencies as effective diversification instruments.
Downloads
References
C. C. Lee and C. C. Lee, “Oil price shocks and Chinese banking performance: Do country risks matter?,” Energy Econ., vol. 77, pp. 46–53, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.08.025.
A. Şen, “Commodity prices and economic growth: Empirical evidence from countries with different income groups,” Heliyon, vol. 10, no. 13, Art. no. e33892, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33892.
Y. Chen, S. Dong, S. Qian, and K. Chung, “Impact of oil price volatility and economic policy uncertainty on business investment - Insights from the energy sector,” Heliyon, vol. 10, no. 5, Art. no. e26533, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26533.
R. A. Mundell, “A theory of optimum currency areas,” Amer. Econ. Rev., vol. 51, no. 4, pp. 657–665, 1961.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, “Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures,” Bank for Int. Settlements, Basel, Switzerland, Dec. 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d545.pdf
“Dow Jones & Company,” Wikipedia. Accessed: Dec. 5, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_%26_Company
“History of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA),” Dow-Jones-DJIA.com. Accessed: Dec. 5, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.dow-jones-djia.com/history-of-dow-jones-industrial-average-index
N. G. Fosback, Stock Market Logic: A Sophisticated Approach to Profits on Wall Street, 4th ed. New Rochelle, NY, USA: Investors Intelligence, 2016.
S. Hossaion et al., “The evolution of Bitcoin: A historical analysis and future prospects,” IRASD J. Econ., vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 241–252, 2023, doi: 10.52131/joe.2023.0502.0124.
X. Wang et al., “Bitcoin and traditional finance: A comparative analysis,” J. Financial Innovation, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 45–67, 2020.
E. Bouri et al., “The relationship between bitcoin and Nasdaq, US dollar index,” J. Risk Financial Manage., vol. 15, no. 5, Art. no. 213, 2022.
R. Auer and S. Claessens, “Regulating cryptocurrencies: Assessing market reactions,” BIS Quart. Rev., pp. 47–61, Sep. 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1809f.htm
A. Ahmadova, “The relationship between bitcoin and Nasdaq, US dollar index,” J. Risk Financial Manage., vol. 17, no. 3, Art. no. 112, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/653309/1/1882910141_0.pdf
M. Aftab, S. Z. A. Shah, and I. Ismail, “Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven against equity and currency in Asia?,” Global Bus. Rev., vol. 21, no. 5, pp. 1247–1263, 2020, doi: 10.1177/0972150918808438.
A. Shiva and M. Sethi, “Understanding dynamic relationship among gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence in Indian context,” Global Bus. Rev., vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 547–558, 2015, doi: 10.1177/0972150915578373.
A. Baumann, B. Fabian, and M. Lischke, “Exploring the Bitcoin network,” in Proc. 2014 IEEE/WIC/ACM Int. Joint Conf. Web Intell. (WI) Intell. Agent Technol. (IAT), Warsaw, Poland, 2014, pp. 597–604, doi: 10.1109/WI-IAT.2014.104.
“The international role of the U.S. dollar – 2025 edition,” Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, USA, Jul. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-2025-edition-20250718.html
R. Z. Aliber and R. N. McCauley, “What’s wrong with the international monetary system?,” J. Int. Money Finance, vol. 79, pp. 132–145, 2017.
“U.S. Dollar Index futures,” Intercontinental Exchange. [Online]. Available: https://www.ice.com/products/194/us-dollar-index-futures
M. A. Kabir, “Predict the prices of the US dollar index,” Scribd, Oct. 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.scribd.com/document/941132424/Predict-the-Prices-of-the-Us-Dollar-Index
Statista, “Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) – 10-Year Weekly Chart,” Oct. 17, 2024. Accessed: Dec. 2025.
A. Ganti, “Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA),” Nov. 7, 2024. Accessed: Dec. 2025.
Y. Jin, P. Zhai, and Z. Zhu, “Oil price shocks and bank risk around the world,” Energy J., vol. 43, no. SI, pp. 1–28, 2022.
K. Aliyev, A. Ahmadova, and T. Guliyev, “The relationship between Bitcoin and Nasdaq, U.S. Dollar Index and Commodities,” Int. J. Energy Econ. Policy, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 281–289, 2024, doi: 10.32479/ijeep.14996.
E. D. Chason, “How Bitcoin functions as property law,” Seton Hall Law Rev., vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 129–158, 2018.
J. Lanchester, “When Bitcoin grows up,” London Rev. Books, vol. 38, no. 8, pp. 6–12, 2016.
B. Segendorf, “Bitcoin: A payment perspective,” Riksbank Econ. Rev., vol. 2014, no. 2, pp. 25–37, 2014.
V. Malik, “Bitcoin: Trust and regulatory challenges,” J. Financial Innovation, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 45–59, 2016.
J. S. Landefeld, B. R. Moulton, and C. M. Vojtech, “Chained-dollar indexes: Issues, tips on their use, and upcoming changes,” Surv. Current Bus., vol. 83, no. 11, pp. 8–15, 2003.
G. Platts, “Dollar stays strong, yen tumbles,” Global Finance Mag., 2009.
J. A. Lafuente-Luengo, “Intraday realized volatility relationships between the S&P 500 spot and futures market,” J. Futures Markets, vol. 29, no. 11, pp. 1050–1070, 2009.
P. D. Cretien, “Currencies, eurodollars, silver and gold: Not your average relationship,” Futures Mag., 2009.
P. Krugman, “Bitcoin is evil,” New York Times, Dec. 28, 2013.
J. C.-Y. Wang, “A simple macroeconomic model of Bitcoin,” SSRN Electron. J., 2014.
D. Yermack, “Is Bitcoin a real currency? An economic appraisal,” NBER Working Paper No. 19747, Nat. Bureau Econ. Res., Cambridge, MA, USA, 2013.
A. Ahmadova, T. Guliyev, and K. Aliyev, “The relationship between Bitcoin and Nasdaq, U.S. Dollar Index and Commodities,” Int. J. Energy Econ. Policy, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 281–289, Jun. 2024, doi: 10.32479/ijeep.14996.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Academic Journal of International University of Erbil

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.









